Research

My research spans two main areas: developing tools for causal inference under violations of common assumptions and examining the dynamics of political instability and regime change.

My current methodological projects focus on causal inference under interference. I adapt and evaluate design-based and model-based strategies to recover credible effects when treatments diffuse across geographic or networked units, or when they evolve over time.

All my working papers are available upon request. Feel free to email me if you are interested in collaborating or just curious.

Methods

Alipio-Correa, Joao. Synthetic Control Method under Interference: Detecting and Correcting Bias - Working Paper

Alipio-Correa, Joao. Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Consistency Violations under Interference - Working Paper

Alipio-Correa, Joao. Beyond Placebos: Constructing Synthetic Interventions for Causal Inference - Work-in-Progress

Applied Work

Alipio-Correa, Joao. When Coups Fail: Causal Estimates of Economic Decline after Unsuccessful Seizures of Power - Working Paper

Chelidonopoulos, Laura; Alipio-Correa, Joao. Navigating the Divide: How Unattached Voters Respond to Politically Sponsored Protests in Polarized Contexts - Working Paper

Alipio-Correa, Joao; Chelidonopoulos, Laura. Can the Resource Curse be Avoided? Assessing the Impact of a Major Oil Field Discovery on Political Participation - Work-in-Progress