Research

My research spans two main areas: developing tools for causal inference under violations of common assumptions and examining the dynamics of political instability and regime change.

My current methodological projects focus on causal inference under interference. I adapt and evaluate design-based and model-based strategies to recover credible effects when treatments diffuse across geographic or networked units, or when they evolve over time.

Guided by a core interest in understanding how regimes absorb or collapse under pressure, my applied research centers on regime change and political instability. I study how disruptions affect political and economic outcomes and how they shape broader regime trajectories.

All my working papers are available upon request. Feel free to email me if you are interested in collaborating or just curious.

Methods

Alipio-Correa, Joao. Synthetic Control Method under Interference: Detecting and Correcting Bias - Working Paper

Alipio-Correa, Joao. Beyond Placebos: Constructing Synthetic Treatments for Causal Inference - Work-in-Progress

Alipio-Correa, Joao. Causal Blind Spots: When Moran’s I Fails to Detect Spillovers under Interference - Working Paper/Research Note

Democracy and Regime Change

Alipio-Correa, Joao. When Coups Fail: Causal Estimates of Economic Decline after Unsuccessful Seizures of Power - Working Paper

Chelidonopoulos, Laura; Alipio-Correa, Joao. Navigating the Divide: How Unattached Voters Respond to Politically Sponsored Protests in Polarized Contexts - Working Paper

Alipio-Correa, Joao; Chelidonopoulos, Laura. Can the Resource Curse be Avoided? Assessing the Impact of a Major Oil Field Discovery on Political Participation - Work-in-Progress

Alipio-Correa, Joao; Hang, Muyao. Demanding Deconsolidation: Popular Backing for Autocracy and Democratic Erosion - Working Paper